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Prospect analysisArchived
Smoky Mountain Indoor Pool Retreat
Asking$1,150,000
Sevierville, TN
Sevierville · 3 bd · 4 ba · 2,176 sq ft · Built 2025
Underwritten as a short-term rental
Newly built 3-bedroom STR with indoor pool and strong projected cash flow in Sevierville’s Smoky Mountain market.
This 2025-construction property offers modern amenities, year-round guest appeal, and high-confidence underwriting with a projected 22.8% cash-on-cash return. The premium list price is supported by robust income assumptions but exceeds recent comparable sales, making performance sensitivity a key diligence item.
Est. ADR
$716
Est. occupancy
62%
Gross rev / mo
$13,503
Cash-on-cash
22.8%
Airfolio market estimates · 20% down · detail in the underwriting panel.
Investment thesis
This property stands out as a purpose-built, amenity-rich short-term rental in a high-demand Smoky Mountain vacation market. Its indoor pool, game room, and family-friendly features are designed to maximize occupancy and nightly rates across all seasons, appealing to both families and groups. Underwriting projects strong income and cash flow, making it suitable for investors seeking high-yield, professionally managed STR assets. The primary caveat is the premium pricing relative to recent comparable sales, which places greater importance on achieving the modeled rental performance.
Highlights
- 2025 new construction with modern mountain design
- 3 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 2,176 sqft on 0.73 wooded acres
- Private indoor pool, outdoor hot tub, and game room
- Family-friendly amenities (playroom, toys, travel crib, safety gates)
- Expansive windows with Smoky Mountain views
- Proximity to Pigeon Forge, Dollywood, and Great Smoky Mountains National Park
- Projected 22.8% cash-on-cash return (high-confidence underwriting)
- Recent sale at $950,000 in January 2026
Risks
STR permitting: verify local ordinance and zoning allow short-term rental at this address before offering. Not verified.
Purchase price is above recent comparable sales, requiring strong rental performance to justify valuation
Returns are sensitive to occupancy and ADR assumptions; seasonal demand swings may impact income
STR regulations and permitting should be verified for this location
New construction may have limited operating history, increasing underwriting reliance on projections
Competition from similar new inventory could pressure pricing and occupancy
Operational complexity due to premium amenities (pool, hot tub, game room)
Market
Sevierville, TN is a well-established short-term rental market benefiting from proximity to major attractions like Dollywood and the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. The region attracts year-round tourism, supporting demand for amenity-rich vacation rentals. The property’s modern build and features are well-aligned with guest preferences in this market, though the premium price point places it at the higher end of local inventory. Market confidence is high given the area’s track record, but performance will depend on maintaining strong occupancy and ADR.
Neighborhood
The property is situated in a wooded, mountain-view setting near key tourist destinations, offering a peaceful retreat while remaining accessible to area attractions. Guest appeal is likely high for families and groups seeking privacy, amenities, and convenience. The residential character and lack of dense development support a premium rental experience, though detailed location-specific demand signals are limited, so conclusions about neighborhood-specific upside are moderate-confidence.
Underwriting notes
Underwriting projects a monthly expected income of $13,503 and cash flow of $4,372, with a 22.8% cash-on-cash return based on a $1,150,000 purchase price, 20% down, 6.4% interest, and a 25% expense ratio. These high-confidence figures are driven by an estimated $716 ADR and 62% occupancy, both of which are aggressive but plausible for a property with this amenity set in this market. The investment thesis is highly sensitive to achieving these rental metrics; underperformance in occupancy or ADR would materially impact returns. The absence of a management fee in the model assumes self-management or highly efficient operations.
Value context
Airfolio est.Modeled value
$1,119,200
Modeled range
$1,068,836–$1,169,564
Asking
$1,150,000
Asking sits within the modeled range.
Solid: value history · Dashed: 24-month projection with confidence band. Airfolio estimates, not appraisals.
As of Sep 17, 2026 · Modeled from record, listing, and market data. An estimate, not an appraisal.
Sales history
| Date | Event | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | Sold | $950,000 |
| Mar 2024 | Sold | $90,000 |
| Jul 2007 | Sold | $65,000 |
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