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Prospect analysisArchived

Gatlinburg Modern Lodge Retreat

Asking$1,149,000

Gatlinburg, TN

Gatlinburg · 5 bd · 6 ba · 3,000 sq ft · Built 2019

Underwritten as a short-term rental

Modern 5-bedroom, 6-bath Gatlinburg lodge with strong short-term rental income potential and high projected cash-on-cash returns.

This 2019-built property offers a turnkey, amenity-rich experience in a prime Smoky Mountains location, with high-confidence underwriting metrics indicating robust income and cash flow. The investment thesis is supported by recent comparable sales and a proven STR market, though the price point requires sustained rental performance.

Est. ADR
$725
Est. occupancy
68%
Gross rev / mo
$14,995
Cash-on-cash
28.7%

Airfolio market estimates · 20% down · detail in the underwriting panel.

Investment thesis

This property is well-positioned for investors seeking a high-yield, professionally managed short-term rental in Gatlinburg’s competitive vacation market. The five-bedroom, six-bath layout, modern construction, and extensive amenities (including a swim spa, theater room, and game area) cater to large groups and families, maximizing nightly rates and occupancy. Underwriting metrics indicate high projected cash-on-cash returns, driven by strong ADR and occupancy assumptions. The primary caveat is that the investment’s success is sensitive to continued demand for large-group rentals and ongoing regulatory stability in the STR sector.

Highlights

  • 5 bedrooms, each with en-suite bath
  • 6 total bathrooms
  • 3,000 square feet, built in 2019
  • Extensive amenities: swim spa, hot tub, theater room, arcade, firepit
  • Level lawn and outdoor entertainment areas
  • Proximity to downtown Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge
  • Parking for five vehicles
  • High-confidence underwriting with strong projected cash flow

Risks

STR permitting: verify local ordinance and zoning allow short-term rental at this address before offering. Not verified.
STR regulations should be verified for ongoing compliance
Returns are sensitive to occupancy and ADR assumptions
High purchase price requires sustained rental demand
Potential for increased competition from newer or similarly sized inventory
Operational complexity due to large guest groups and amenity maintenance
Seasonal demand swings typical of Smoky Mountains market

Market

Gatlinburg, TN remains a top-tier destination for short-term rentals, particularly for large, amenity-rich properties catering to vacationing families and groups. The market has demonstrated resilience and strong demand, but is subject to regulatory oversight and seasonal fluctuations. Recent comparable sales support the valuation, though the price point is at the higher end of the local spectrum, reflecting the property’s size and features.

Neighborhood

The property is situated in a location with strong guest appeal, offering convenient access to Gatlinburg attractions and proximity to Pigeon Forge. The residential character is oriented toward vacation rentals, with amenities and layout designed for group stays. While detailed location-specific demand signals are limited, the area’s established reputation as a vacation hub supports medium-to-high confidence in ongoing guest demand.

Underwriting notes

At a list price of $1,149,000, underwriting metrics project a monthly expected income of $14,995 and cash flow of $5,497, with a 28.7% expected cash-on-cash return based on a 20% down payment, 6.4% interest rate, and 25% expense ratio. These high-confidence figures are driven by an estimated ADR of $725 and a 68% occupancy rate. The investment’s performance is most sensitive to occupancy and nightly rate assumptions, and ongoing diligence should focus on verifying STR regulations and operational cost controls.

Value context

Airfolio est.
Modeled value
$1,149,000
Modeled range
$1,100,742–$1,197,258
Asking
$1,149,000
Asking sits within the modeled range.

Solid: value history · Dashed: 24-month projection with confidence band. Airfolio estimates, not appraisals.

As of Sep 17, 2026 · Modeled from record, listing, and market data. An estimate, not an appraisal.

Sales history

DateEventPrice
Jul 2019Sold$640,500

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Figures are Airfolio market estimates modeled from listing, record, and market data, not investment advice · Analysis Sep 17, 2026.
Airfolio is a product of Trusty Labs, Inc. · CA DRE #01527508

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Airfolio is a product of Trusty Labs, Inc., a licensed California real estate brokerage · CA DRE #01527508. Concierge introductions to agents, lenders, and property managers are referrals, and Trusty Labs may receive referral fees. Revenue and return figures are Airfolio market estimates from public records, listing data, and market modeling, not offers, appraisals, or investment advice. Verify all figures independently.
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